(MoneyforAgents.com) – The spring housing market of this year may have gotten a head start thanks to a significant decline in mortgage interest rates in December.
Customers anticipate further rate drops, as they are currently around one full percentage point lower than in October.
Fannie Mae's monthly consumer survey indicates optimism over mortgage rates spiked in December. According to Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae, more homeowners expect rates to go down rather than up for the first time since the survey's start in 2010.
Palim stated, "This notable change in consumer expectations follows the recent rally in the bond market." "Remarkably, compared to renters, homeowners and higher-income groups indicated stronger rate optimism.”
Since the beginning of the COVID epidemic, the average rate on the 30-year fixed has experienced a tumultuous ride.
It hit over a dozen record lows in 2020 and 2021, around 3%, sparking a historic run on home-buying and a dramatic price jump, only to subsequently more than double in 2022.
In October 2023, rates reached a 20-year high and remained there for a while, averaging 8%, before dropping to 7% in December. That being said, rates have not decreased in the last three years.
April 20, Cutler Bay, Florida On April 20, 2023, in Cutler Bay, Florida, Ryan Paredes (R) and Ariadna Paredes view a house that Ryan Ratliff, a Real Estate Sales Associate with Re/Max Advance Realty, is showing them.
The National Association of Realtors reported that, in March, existing home sales decreased by 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. Furthermore, sales were down 22.0% from a year ago.
Customers are returning. Paul Legere, a real estate agent in the Washington, D.C., region, had two open houses this past weekend for homes priced between $1.1 million and $1.2 million.
He claimed these were the busiest he had seen in the previous 12 months.
"My coworker provided a similar report," he continued. Even amid a downpour on Saturday, we both had more than ten groups of customers in action.
These folks had previously been in the market but had slowed down or stopped searching, and now they were returning with a sincere desire to find a new home.
Legere stated that he anticipates seeing "an infusion" of inventory during the next week or two. Another obstacle for prospective homebuyers is the high prices maintained by low inventories.
A more optimistic outlook for mortgage rates may convince some homeowners to list their properties for sale, helping to increase the supply of existing homes in the new year.
This is because homeowners have told us time and time again in recent months that high mortgage rates are the main reason why it's the wrong time to buy and sell a home.
According to a new analysis by national real estate agency Redfin, demand increased in December as interest rates decreased. As per the research, Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index, a seasonally adjusted measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents, increased by 10% from the previous month and reached its highest point since August.
Pending sales, which track contracts for already-built homes, decreased by 3% from December 2022, although that was the least amount of decline in the previous two years.
Much will depend on interest rates and house values in the upcoming months. Due to a shortage of supply, prices are still rising. If interest rates keep falling, price increases may quicken. Potential homeowners can afford more when the rate is lower.
Although more mortgage rate reductions are anticipated, this will depend on inflation and the economy's health.
Matthew Graham, the chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily, recently stated on CNBC's "The Exchange" that the current economic data is showing strong momentum.
In his opinion, if the data continues to perform well, then there is a possibility that mortgage rates could decrease and even reach 5%, or potentially even high 4s, if some experts are correct about a recession in 2024.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit a recent low of 6.61% at the end of December but is up slightly this month to 6.76%, according to
Mortgage News Daily.
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