By Money for Agents Team
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March 21, 2024
(MoneyforAgents.com) – The Federal Reserve is still planning rate cuts for this year, and house buying may be disrupted by changes in selling procedures. This is the prognosis. President Biden has started looking for ways his administration may lower the high cost of housing, real estate brokers are expected to reduce their commissions following a significant settlement, and Federal Reserve officials want to lower interest rates this year. In summary, a lot of change is occurring in the housing market. Despite a notable slowdown in sales due to increased borrowing rates, housing and rental rates are still significantly higher than before the epidemic. Whether the current advancements will reduce costs is the subject at hand. According to housing industry economists, cost increases are anticipated to be relatively low within the coming year. However, they do not expect real price reductions in most markets, particularly for residential purchases. Cheaper mortgages could entice buyers into a market with too few homes for sale, even though lower rates can help attract more supply around the edges. Demographic factors are still driving strong demand. Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman stated, "It has become almost impossible for me to imagine home prices actually going down." "Inventory constraints are extremely severe." Here are the changes and their potential effects on renters, sellers, and buyers. A decline in interest rates is anticipated The Fed's decision to raise interest rates to a level not seen in more than two decades has contributed to the recent high cost of mortgages. Although the central bank does not set mortgage rates, its policy decisions raise borrowing costs throughout the economy. 30-year mortgage rates have been averaging under 7%, recently rising from less than 3% in 2021. When the Fed reduces borrowing costs, those rates may also decrease, especially if investors start to believe that the rate cut will be more significant than they presently think. More often than not, investors' expectations of what the Fed will do cause changes in mortgage rates and other borrowing costs, not the central bank's actions. This is one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been gradually declining since they peaked in late 2023 at roughly 7.8 percent: The inflation rate has decreased, and it is now evident that the Fed may shortly lower its policy rate. On Wednesday, central bankers predicted that they may lower interest rates three times this year and three more times the following year. According to some analysts, mortgage rates may fall much lower in 2024. For example, Greg McBride of Bankrate believes they may finish the year at roughly 6 percent. Lower borrowing costs will impact the housing market in two significant ways. First, they lower the cost of financing a purchase: A $400,000 mortgage with a 7.8 percent interest rate would pay roughly $2,880 each month; at a 6 percent interest rate, it would be closer to $2,400. Such a drop can increase demand from prospective purchasers. Secondly, if rates drop, more homeowners might decide to sell. Many Americans are reluctant to move because they are sitting on low-cost mortgages that they refinanced during the pandemic. Rate lock-in may decrease if the difference between current mortgage rates and market rates narrows, which might lead to an increase in the number of available starter homes. Brokerage operations are about to change The cost of borrowing is not the only factor that could affect the home market. In a move that might upend the home-buying process, the National Association of Realtors, a strong organization that has long established the rules for house sales, has decided to settle several lawsuits. The deal would relieve agents representing home sellers of the obligation to pay purchasers' agents in a conspicuously visible way and subject to court approval. The typical industry commission of 5 or 6 percent will decrease due to the shift. It's unclear just how that will affect housing expenses. There's talk that it might drive down prices, partly because sellers would find listing their properties at lower commissions slightly more appealing. However, the amount that prices can drop is limited. While the move may save Americans money on transaction fees, according to Igor Popov, chief economist at Apartment List, house sellers would still continue to try to charge as much as they could in cutthroat markets. "It's not a big deal for prices and quantities, but it's a big deal for the industry," he remarked. Agents are unsure how the consequences will manifest. Long Island realtor Jovanni Ortiz said he had heard colleagues question whether agents might quit the industry. Still, no one was certain how much this would cost agents or how it would change the home-buying experience. Mr. Ortiz stated that it was still too early to say. The White House is thinking about policies Concerned that Americans' inability to afford a house or pay their rent is affecting the country's economic confidence, President Biden has become fixated on the exorbitant cost of housing in recent weeks. He unveiled further initiatives to support homebuyers in his State of the Union address. More than $250 billion in expenditure recommendations are included in his most recent budget request to address the high cost of housing. These plans include boosting rental assistance for low-income workers and constructing or renovating two million housing units. However, most of those proposals don't seem likely to be implemented immediately. With the November election approaching and the Republicans controlling the House, there doesn't seem to be much prospect of enacting a significant housing law this year. Nevertheless, Mr. Biden has instructed his administration to take independent action to lower certain expenses related to purchasing a home. By eliminating title insurance costs for federally backed mortgages, he has the potential to save each transaction at least $1,000. He urged real estate brokers to pass the savings from reduced mandatory commissions to buyers this week. Rental housing is becoming more available, but this trend may not last long Recent months have seen a significant alleviation of the supply shortage, allowing rents on new leases to rise only slowly or even decline in certain regions. Several large rental buildings were built in several Southern and Mountain West cities, which relieved pressure on monthly costs. However, Mr. Popov stated there won't be much new inventory in 2026 or the following year, so the cool-down might be minimal. The availability of homes for sale is a less happy tale. Not only have fewer sellers been listing their homes for sale, but rising mortgage rates have also hurt home construction. This has made a shortage that has been getting worse for years, and it has meant that prices have stayed high despite declining sales of both new and existing homes due to high mortgage rates. Builders might be more inclined to develop new homes as soon as they observe indications of a thawing market. However, many customers will be drawn in by the somewhat reduced prices. Senior economist at BNP Paribas Yelena Shulyatyeva stated, "Demand is so strong that it's unlikely that the housing market will fall apart." She pointed out, among other trends, that many millennials are still in the market to purchase a home. The final result? According to Mr. Popov, the housing market may soon revert to more typical levels. At the same time, a price decline is improbable; price gains might be more gradual than in the significant spikes since 2020. "The pandemic has caused numerous significant blows to the housing market, and we've been feeling the aftershocks of those blows," he stated. "The housing market will experience a return to more normal numbers and sentiment."