(MoneyforAgents.com) – According to Morgan Stanley, the U.S. home price correction that started in the summer of 2022 is still going strong, whose most recent prediction model predicts a 3 percent nationwide decline in home prices in the upcoming year.
Home prices in the United States fell for seven months following their June 2022 peak due to a decline in demand, with economists declaring that the market was going through a significant correction.
However, by early 2023, home prices began to rise once more as demand remained high and inventory levels remained generally low across the nation, prompting some to predict the market slump was probably finished.
Even though mortgage rates remained high, property prices rose 0.7% higher in May than the previous record set in June 2022. However, Morgan Stanley predicted that the housing downturn would persist in 2019.
Morgan Stanley, one of the greatest names in investment banking globally, had forecast back in August that home prices would drop by 2 percent the following year.
It updated its projections in October, indicating that home values would decline by as much as 5% in the upcoming year.
Morgan Stanley has revised its 2024 predictions again, this time predicting a mild decline of roughly 3 percent in housing values. On Monday, Newsweek sent Morgan Stanley an email requesting a comment.
Both increased sales inventory and improved affordability are what we anticipate. As the rise in inventory balances the increased demand, U.S. home prices should witness small decreases (down 3% YoY), according to Morgan Stanley, as reported by writer Lance Lambert on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The top U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, believes that this additional price decline will benefit the American housing market, particularly for prospective homeowners.
In a recent podcast, the investment banking firm Zentner stated, "We expect home sales to be weak in the first half of next year, but activity should pick up in the second half and further into 2025." The podcast was aired on November 17.
The economist believes that the main factor behind this recovery will be increased affordability, which has been a major problem for American homebuyers in recent years as prices have risen to all-time highs and mortgage rates have skyrocketed since 2022 as a result of the Federal Reserve's efforts to fight inflation.
The situation should also be improved by an increase in inventory, which has been a major problem in recent years, driving up prices as purchasers compete over a limited supply.
"We also think homebuilding activity will be stronger in the second half of next year," added Zentner.
She added, "As inventory increases to balance out demand growth, home prices might experience slight reductions. With reduced rates, home sales should increase more logically by 2025."
"It is unlikely that the housing market would collapse to the extent it did in 2008; instead, the investment manager anticipates "a soft landing for the U.S. economy," according to Zentner.
"We still maintain this view, even though strains in the economy are becoming more noticeable and recession fears remain alive," she stated.
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